As a Reds fan, I do need to be honest about one thing. If they would have finished the job of blowing that nine-run lead and letting them get swept, having given up double-digit runs and at least 17 hits in three consecutive games, I would be scared for my team's chances for the first time this season. I would be much more convinced that the Cardinals would come back and win the division or get a playoff spot.
Thankfully, the sky didn't fall today, the Reds, and specifically Joey Votto, came up clutch again, and the Pirates did us another favor and allowed our lead to grow back to 3.5 games. I felt a lot better at 11 PM last night about the division than I could have possibly felt at 7 PM, that's for sure! I don't really give a crap if Colin Cowherd thinks the Reds are frauds, in the end, doing what they are supposed to do is going to be enough for them to win this division, and no Reds fan should ever be disappointed about going 6-3 on a West Coast swing.
The Cardinals, on the other hand, illustrated two reasons why they may not win the Central: They're not beating teams they should, and they're not winning on the road. For the reason, the Reds are 7.5 games better than the Cardinals in road tilts, and the Cardinals have no business losing a series in Pittsburgh, even if the Pirates are not abysmal at home (30-36, .454). Ironically, the Cards are now worse than that on the road (27-33, .450). It's an apples and oranges comparison, but any way you slice it, these are games the Cardinals need to win, and they didn't. Letting the Reds thus play with house money and getting a win they maybe had no business getting is only a bonus.
Back to the Reds though. There's certainly cause for concern here. The bullpen is starting to show some major signs of wear, and that deep starting rotation that initially had 7 strong candidates when all healthy (Arroyo, Wood, Leake, Volquez, Bailey, Cueto, Harang) is suddenly down to possibly only four based on the Reds own comments of shutting down Leake, and maybe placing Volquez and Harang in the bullpen. Suddenly, Sam LeCure and Matt Maloney are viable in a stretch run?! They've been solid when the team has needed them, but it's not the proposition that the team really wanted at this point. It's going to be important for them to get some good starting pitching, not just in the quality, but quantity of innings, to give this bullpen a rest on this homestand. If they can make it to September 1st, you likely can get some extra arms (Herrera, Del Roasrio, Smith, and most importantly Aroldis Chapman) to help take some load off of the guys you'll need in October.
Hitting? The Reds have (and will continue to be) fine. Maybe they bring up Balentien for depth after the 1st of September, but until then, the four outfielders they have will be just fine. Just an excuse to play Chris Heisey more, and that's something I like.
It all comes down to this. Go 4-2 or better at home this week, do what you do so well (win series), and force the Cardinals to beat teams they should, and this team will be fine. A little confidence going into the series against them on Labor Day would be nice.
Stats & Thoughts on the series:
- The Giants became the fifth team this decade and the second this year to have three straight games with 17 or more hits. It's been done in four straight games before, but not since the 30's
- It's the second time in Reds history that they have surrendered 11 runs in three consecutive games, although it's not that remote anymore (happened 17 times in MLB this decade) [LINK]. Alternatively, it's the 11th time that a team has scored 11 runs in three straight games, and the first time that the Giants have pulled off the feat in San Francisco. [LINK]
- Can we just go ahead right now and say Buster Posey is going to be an All-Star, and soon?
Enjoy the day off, it'll be good for everyone to collect their breath a little!
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- Never-say-die Reds stand tall after West Coast trip (cbssports.com)
- Reds Blow Nine-Run Lead Of Their Own, But Manage To Rally And Win Over Giants In 12 (sbnation.com)
- Reds lose big lead, outlast Giants in 12 innings (cbssports.com)
Baseball-Reference had a blog post this past week where they detailed streaks where a pitcher threw six innings or more, but gave up five or less hits every time. This was in regards to the recent success of Trevor Cahill in Oakland, and also it plays nicely with my looking at Travis Wood throwing similar games.
The man at the top of this list that only seven players have ever done? Johan Santana. He had a stretch in 2004 where he pitches 10 consecutive starts of six-plus innings, and five hits or less. He’s the only man with a double-digit streak (the others were 8-game or 9-game), he pitched the most innings of anyone on the list, and gave up the least hits. In fact, you could narrow the criteria because he never gave up more than four hits in any of those starts! That narrows the list down quite a bit.
| Rk | Strk Start | End | Games | W | L | GS | CG | SHO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | HR | ERA | HBP | Tm | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Johan Santana | 2004-06-15 | 2004-08-01 | 10 | 7 | 2 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 77.0 | 27 | 15 | 13 | 18 | 102 | 9 | 1.52 | 5 | MIN |
| 2 | A.J. Burnett | 2007-08-12 | 2007-09-13 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 50.2 | 25 | 13 | 10 | 18 | 46 | 6 | 1.78 | 3 | TOR |
| 3 | Carlos Zambrano | 2006-05-16 | 2006-06-10 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 43.1 | 19 | 9 | 9 | 22 | 43 | 5 | 1.87 | 2 | CHC |
| 4 | Pedro Martinez | 2006-04-22 | 2006-05-20 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 41.0 | 21 | 11 | 11 | 9 | 53 | 5 | 2.41 | 1 | NYM |
| 5 | Sid Fernandez | 1989-09-21 | 1990-04-22 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 47.0 | 18 | 13 | 12 | 19 | 42 | 2 | 2.30 | 1 | NYM |
| 6 | Mark Langston | 1988-08-29 | 1988-09-24 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 51.1 | 19 | 5 | 5 | 29 | 43 | 2 | 0.88 | 0 | SEA |
| 7 | Jim Palmer | 1972-05-05 | 1972-05-28 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 47.0 | 21 | 8 | 7 | 11 | 38 | 3 | 1.34 | 0 | BAL |
| 8 | Nolan Ryan | 1971-04-29 | 1971-05-29 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 46.2 | 19 | 7 | 4 | 37 | 47 | 1 | 0.77 | 4 | NYM |
| 9 | Bob Feller | 1946-07-24 | 1946-08-13 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 50.2 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 24 | 47 | 0 | 0.36 | 0 | CLE |
No one else has a streak longer than 7 games, and that’s just one other pitcher since 1920! As a result of this, it’s pretty apparent that this was maybe as dominant as Santana had ever been, and I looked into it a bit further. Turns out, the last 22 starts he made in 2004 might just be one of the most impressive stretches of pitching in the division era.
Before his start on June 9th, Santana was not all that good. His ERA was a staggering 5.50, he only had three quality starts by game score in his first 12 outings, and he was an unimpressive 2-4. He flat out hadn’t been good. But, something must have clicked, because from that day forward, this is his line:
Starts: 22
Record: 18-2
ERA: 1.36 (Dropped every game except for one)
Innings: 159.1 (7.24 IP per start)
Hits Allowed: 80 (4.52 H/9, wow!)
Walks: 31
Strikeouts: 204 (11.52 K/9)
Quality Starts by Game Store: 100% (22/22, only failed to reach a score of 60 one time)
GSIP: 3.847 (off the charts, read previous entries for this)
Batting Average Against: .146
Baseball-Reference Link
These numbers would instantly take you back to Ubaldo Jimenez’s amazing start this season when he had a 1.15 ERA over his first 14 starts … for the Rockies! But, his strikeout numbers weren’t even close to this good, the peripheral numbers weren’t as good, and it just didn’t last as long. Now let’s not get ahead of ourselves, this is like comparing Mount Everest to K2, they’re both really impressive, but the point is to show just how good Santana was in this stretch. Heck, he’s three innings away from qualifying for a season-long ERA title on the strength of these starts!
Another thought about these numbers: If you ever needed proof that we will never see another 30 game winner, imagine this. These stats prorated over a 162-game season would come out to just under 28 wins. It’s hard to imagine a pitcher on a better run than this, and that wouldn’t even get him to 30. The other numbers outside of the H/9 number might be sustainable by an elite pitcher.
Twins fans should feel very blessed they got to watch this player during this peak time. He’s good now, but I don’t know if anyone can be this good.
Editor’s Note: Just saw this got left in my “Drafts” section. It’s a bit dated now, but still worth the mention.
Thought I’d post a little bit more on the previous blog post regarding Cliff Lee and his off the charts innings averages this year, over 8 innings per start. He’s actually had quite the streak of consecutive starts recently where he has pitched at least eight innings, and it’s the longest such streak in more than a decade.
| Rk | Strk Start | End | Games | W | L | GS | CG | SHO | IP | BB | SO | HR | ERA | Tm | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pat Hentgen | 1996-07-28 | 1996-09-24 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 12 | 7 | 1 | 103.0 | 19 | 78 | 6 | 2.53 | TOR |
| 2 | Doug Drabek | 1992-06-30 | 1992-08-22 | 11 | 5 | 3 | 11 | 5 | 2 | 91.0 | 19 | 59 | 4 | 1.58 | PIT |
| 3 | Cliff Lee | 2010-06-18 | 2010-08-01 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 78.1 | 5 | 58 | 7 | 2.18 | SEA-TEX |
| 4 | Mike Mussina | 1992-08-31 | 1993-04-07 | 8 | 6 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 68.0 | 18 | 46 | 2 | 1.32 | BAL |
| 5 | Melido Perez | 1992-08-01 | 1992-09-07 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 66.0 | 13 | 54 | 5 | 2.18 | NYY |
| 6 | Greg Maddux | 1994-07-08 | 1994-08-11 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 61.0 | 3 | 45 | 1 | 1.03 | ATL |
| 7 | Jack McDowell | 1994-07-10 | 1994-08-08 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 60.2 | 9 | 50 | 2 | 2.08 | CHW |
| 8 | Randy Johnson | 1994-05-25 | 1994-06-25 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 62.0 | 18 | 77 | 2 | 0.87 | SEA |
| 9 | Curt Schilling | 1992-09-09 | 1993-04-11 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 60.0 | 9 | 32 | 1 | 1.65 | PHI |
| 10 | Terry Mulholland | 1992-06-29 | 1992-07-31 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 59.2 | 4 | 31 | 5 | 2.72 | PHI |
| 11 | Roger Clemens | 1992-05-04 | 1992-06-06 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 59.0 | 10 | 42 | 2 | 1.68 | BOS |
| 12 | Chuck Finley | 1990-07-02 | 1990-08-05 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 61.1 | 17 | 43 | 5 | 2.05 | CAL |
| 13 | Roy Halladay | 2007-08-14 | 2007-09-10 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 51.2 | 13 | 26 | 2 | 3.14 | TOR |
| 14 | Mark Mulder | 2003-04-24 | 2003-05-23 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 52.0 | 9 | 33 | 2 | 1.21 | OAK |
The longest streak this season outside of Lee’s is a mere four, done by Felix Hernandez (who has a 7-of-8 streak) and Matt Cain. As you can see, I had to go back to the 90′s to find streaks that were longer.
While this may not tell you anything you didn’t already know, it illustrates just how rare this level of full game pitching really has become, not just in the current realm of super-specialized baseball pitching, but over the past 20 years when this stuff at least seemed like it was a bit more prevalent.
While I have no doubt that a lot of people thought Travis Wood was very good, I don’t know if anyone thought he’d be doing as well as he’s doing right now. From a pure statistics sense, what has grabbed my interest is the number of starts where he’s not only kept runs off the board, but he’s not even giving up very many hits! In fact, out of his seven starts thus far, he’s given up three or less hits, but pitched at least six innings four times.
I would have thought that this would have been a very unique accomplishment, and it is. However, what shocked me was that it’s not even the best in Reds history!
| Rk | Player | Year | #Matching | W | L | W-L% | ERA | GS | CG | SHO | IP | H | WHIP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wayne Simpson | 1970 | 5 | Ind. Games | 3 | 1 | .750 | 1.62 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 39.0 | 12 | 0.77 |
| 2 | Travis Wood | 2010 | 4 | Ind. Games | 1 | 1 | .500 | 0.93 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 29.0 | 8 | 0.55 |
| 3 | Matt Cain | 2005 | 4 | Ind. Games | 2 | 0 | 1.000 | 1.61 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 28.0 | 11 | 0.79 |
| 4 | Jered Weaver | 2006 | 3 | Ind. Games | 3 | 0 | 1.000 | 0.44 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 20.2 | 8 | 0.73 |
| 5 | Greg Smith | 2008 | 3 | Ind. Games | 0 | 1 | .000 | 2.25 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 20.0 | 8 | 0.90 |
| 6 | Herb Score | 1955 | 3 | Ind. Games | 2 | 1 | .667 | 0.75 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 24.0 | 8 | 0.92 |
| 7 | Nolan Ryan | 1968 | 3 | Ind. Games | 3 | 0 | 1.000 | 0.40 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 22.2 | 9 | 0.93 |
| 8 | Chris Nabholz | 1990 | 3 | Ind. Games | 2 | 0 | 1.000 | 1.80 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 20.0 | 7 | 0.80 |
| 9 | Sam Militello | 1992 | 3 | Ind. Games | 1 | 1 | .500 | 1.35 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 20.0 | 6 | 0.85 |
| 10 | Justin Masterson | 2008 | 3 | Ind. Games | 2 | 0 | 1.000 | 1.47 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 18.1 | 8 | 0.98 |
| 11 | Tommy Hanson | 2009 | 3 | Ind. Games | 2 | 0 | 1.000 | 0.47 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 19.0 | 8 | 0.79 |
| 12 | Juan Guzman | 1991 | 3 | Ind. Games | 3 | 0 | 1.000 | 0.40 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 22.2 | 9 | 0.71 |
| 13 | Enrique Gonzalez | 2006 | 3 | Ind. Games | 1 | 0 | 1.000 | 0.90 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 20.0 | 7 | 0.60 |
| 14 | Taylor Buchholz | 2006 | 3 | Ind. Games | 2 | 0 | 1.000 | 1.71 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 21.0 | 7 | 0.67 |
| 15 | Kris Benson | 1999 | 3 | Ind. Games | 3 | 0 | 1.000 | 1.71 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 21.0 | 8 | 1.00 |
| 16 | Jack Armstrong | 1988 | 3 | Ind. Games | 1 | 1 | .500 | 2.33 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 19.1 | 6 | 0.78 |
I would be lying if I told you I remembered the name Wayne Simpson, but like many guys, he came into baseball with a bang (14-3 rookie season), but got injured and never quite got his form back.
The other interesting thought: His four such games don’t lead the league in that category. It’s more prevalent by the star pitchers than you would maybe think.
| Rk | Player | #Matching | W | L | ERA | CG | SHO | IP | H | WHIP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | John Danks | 6 | Ind. Games | 5 | 1 | 0.78 | 1 | 1 | 46.1 | 12 | 0.58 |
| 2 | Javier Vazquez | 5 | Ind. Games | 3 | 1 | 1.06 | 0 | 0 | 34.0 | 11 | 0.71 |
| 3 | Jonathan Sanchez | 5 | Ind. Games | 2 | 3 | 1.00 | 0 | 0 | 36.0 | 13 | 0.81 |
| 4 | Josh Johnson | 5 | Ind. Games | 4 | 0 | 0.97 | 1 | 0 | 37.0 | 14 | 0.59 |
Stephen Strasburg: It Won’t End Here
I am now officially jealous of my friend Stephen. He got to see Stephen Strasburg pitch more than once because he interned in DC this past summer! Sad to say, no more of us will get to see him in his pre-Tommy John form, because he's out until 2012. Even in watching him on TV, I don't think I've seen a pitcher with such amazing stuff since Kerry Wood (and the comparisons between the two of them are now to eerie to count!). Of course, this inspires many thoughts.
Back to Strasburg, Baseball-Reference has gone into some detail about how his 68 innings in the majors are already very statistically memorable. If he even returns to 90% form due to him having multiple plus-pitches, not just that 100 mph fastball, there's nothing saying they couldn't stay that way. I will revisit how well he ended up with that GSIP metric I built in a later post.
Mr. Strasburg, we'll see you in 2012, and don't worry, I will make the drive down to Cincy when you pitch against my team of choice, this baseball fan will not miss lightning striking twice, even if the fastball isn't quite 100 this time!
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